CSIRO and AEMO's GenCost 2025-26 work records another double-digit fall in large-scale battery costs and keeps firmed renewables as the lowest-cost pathway.
CSIRO released the final report on 15 July 2026. GenCost compares the costs of building and operating new electricity generation, storage, and related technologies under common assumptions.
The main findings
The 2025-26 release identifies several changes relevant to the Australian energy market:
- large-scale battery capital costs fell by a double-digit percentage over the year
- gas generation technology costs increased
- renewables supported by storage and other firming remain the lowest-cost path in the modelling
- solar and onshore wind are projected to provide 93 per cent of National Electricity Market generation by 2050
CSIRO also reported an average National Electricity Market wholesale price of $104 per MWh in 2025, with futures markets indicating about $80 to $90 per MWh by 2030. Those figures describe wholesale market conditions. They are not forecasts of a household retail bill.
GenCost compares new-build costs, not household paybacks
GenCost is a new-build technology cost comparison. It helps policymakers, planners, investors, and market participants compare options using a consistent method.
It does not determine the right battery for a particular home or business. A residential decision still depends on:
- electricity consumption and solar production
- import and export tariffs
- usable battery capacity and operating limits
- backup requirements
- installation and switchboard work
- product warranty and expected service life
- finance cost and the customer's reason for buying
Large-scale battery cost trends can influence product development and market economics, but they should not be converted directly into a household payback claim.
Falling storage costs strengthen the firming role of batteries
Falling storage costs strengthen the role batteries can play alongside variable solar and wind generation. The report also shows that the comparison must include firming and system requirements rather than treating generation sources in isolation.
For McKercher Corporation, the relevant response is disciplined interpretation. The group can use public market evidence to understand direction while its operating businesses assess each customer project against site data, current program rules, product constraints, and installation requirements.
The Net Zero pathway places storage within the group's broader position on electrification. The PSW Energy profile explains the installation and engineering role, while the battery retrofit guide covers site-level questions.
Primary references
- CSIRO GenCost 2025-26 release (opens in a new tab)
- CSIRO GenCost reports and supporting material (opens in a new tab)
GenCost inputs and conclusions should be read in the context of the report's assumptions, scenarios, and consultation process.
